Geopolitical Brief: The Eastern Mediterranean Energy Triangle

The Eastern Mediterranean energy triangle — Cyprus, Greece, and Israel — has moved in five years from declaratory cooperation to a set of concrete infrastructure plans. The EastMed pipeline project, the EuroAfrica and EuroAsia electricity interconnectors, and the offshore gas developments off Cyprus together describe an energy geometry that no single country can deliver alone.

This brief reads the geometry against three external constraints: European Union energy-security priorities, Türkiye's parallel claims and capabilities, and the volatility introduced by Eastern Mediterranean security incidents. The interaction between the three constraints determines whether the announced infrastructure becomes operational or remains in the cycle of memoranda, suspensions, and re-launches that has characterised regional energy projects in the past.

The foundation's assessment is that the electricity-interconnector projects are closer to operational reality than the gas-export projects, and that the regional value of the triangle lies more in its emerging electricity backbone than in its hydrocarbon prospects. The brief offers three concrete observations for actors planning around the triangle's next phase.